I made a post a while ago with my predictions.
I just wanted to check back in with more analysis and get some predictions going.
On the Republican side:
County Council District 1- Bob Waldrep has very little support from within his district. Will he get above 35%? The Cindy Wilson imitation would work in any other district, but not district 1.
Brooks Brown will finish last & Raymond MacKay will clean up with 60+%.
County Council District 3 - I haven't heard much about this race. That can't be good for Eddie Moore. Looks like Larry is going to pull out another squeaker.
County Council District 4 -McAbee is safe because Tom Allen has looked absolutely terrible in public. Sure, he talks about no taxes, but he does it in an obsessive nut way.
County Council District 5 - As I mentioned before, Michael Thompson is the most vulnerable member of council. He somehow lucked out and didn't draw any significant competition this year. Still, with so many candidates, he might have to goto a runoff and face the threat of the opposition consolidating against him like in 2006.
County Council District 6 -The only question I have is will Freemantle draw more than 30%?
Ron Wilson has so much money it's ridiculous.
County Council District 7 - As I've mentioned before, I don't think the firefighters have the same capability to get out the vote like they did 10 years ago. Cindy is safe again.
Solicitor - Judging by the cross-section of Anderson supporting Sarah Drawdy, I think she'll win this by a larger margin that most people expect.
Chrissy's got the advantage of incumbency and the patronage of her staff but beyond that does anybody like her? I guess she'll win Oconee County but unless she crushes Drawdy up there, there is no way she can win.
Sheriff -Skipper did well in Anderson city last time and Crenshaw blew him away on the outskirts of the county. Skipper appears to have lined up all the anti-tax people in the country this time.
This is gonna be too easy for him.
On the Democratic side:
SC House 8
Tom Dobbins will win easily over Charlie Griffin. I think Griffin has something wrong with him in terms of public speaking.
SC Senate 4
Wow, this has got to be nightmare for the Democrats.
In one corner you have a fat, polish, good 'ole boy named Odachowski.
In the other corner, you have a Cuban born, weirdo named Ortiz who couldn't get elected in Spartanburg and moved to Anderson to try running here.
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Election Predictions
Interesting analysis. I think you are right about most races. Perhaps Adams and Crenshaw are stonger than you think, but it would not shock me if both lost.
Wilson and McAbee get the lucky dog awards if they win their primaries, (remember McAbee still has a fall fight to win.). McAbee lucked out in getting a weak opponent. Also, his family name carries a lot of weight in his district. People just ain't gonna vote against his mama. Also, Bill's district is borderline Democrat, and a tax raising, money spending, "gettin' it done for the folks" Republican sells well there. It is a more populist district than Republican.
Wilson could lose. Hooper is running a well financed and slick campaign. It could happen. Don't be shocked if it does, but right now, if I had to lay odds, the odds are with Wilson. Her district is more populist in nature as well. And, she is postioning her crusade as a populist one.
I somewhat disagree with your assessment of Bob Waldrep, but you are right about his district. It is a district where a McAbee, Greer or Thompson would have no fight at all. But, do not underestimate name ID and the fact a good many people know the man personally. Hit ads are always hard against a guy people actually know personally.
Take Senate District 4 for example in 2000. Blair Rice was the GOP nominee, Billy O'dell, now GOP, was a Democrat. Rice and the state GOP hit O'dell hard with hit mails. It backfired. When the "get out of jail free" card came out in mailboxes, it ticked people off. More than one said, " I know Billy, he would not do that, this is a bunch of damn lies." Now, the mail was not a pack of lies, but people saw it as such, because they knew O'dell personally. That is what Preston's operation is up against with Waldrep.
Wilson and McAbee get the lucky dog awards if they win their primaries, (remember McAbee still has a fall fight to win.). McAbee lucked out in getting a weak opponent. Also, his family name carries a lot of weight in his district. People just ain't gonna vote against his mama. Also, Bill's district is borderline Democrat, and a tax raising, money spending, "gettin' it done for the folks" Republican sells well there. It is a more populist district than Republican.
Wilson could lose. Hooper is running a well financed and slick campaign. It could happen. Don't be shocked if it does, but right now, if I had to lay odds, the odds are with Wilson. Her district is more populist in nature as well. And, she is postioning her crusade as a populist one.
I somewhat disagree with your assessment of Bob Waldrep, but you are right about his district. It is a district where a McAbee, Greer or Thompson would have no fight at all. But, do not underestimate name ID and the fact a good many people know the man personally. Hit ads are always hard against a guy people actually know personally.
Take Senate District 4 for example in 2000. Blair Rice was the GOP nominee, Billy O'dell, now GOP, was a Democrat. Rice and the state GOP hit O'dell hard with hit mails. It backfired. When the "get out of jail free" card came out in mailboxes, it ticked people off. More than one said, " I know Billy, he would not do that, this is a bunch of damn lies." Now, the mail was not a pack of lies, but people saw it as such, because they knew O'dell personally. That is what Preston's operation is up against with Waldrep.
Make predictions on gas prices. I say we wait and let the voters decide on elections.
My predictions:
Council #1--Waldrep will smoke MacKay--No run-off
Council #3--Not even close, Larry Greer wins and wins bigs
Council #4--Tom Allen wins a close race. He's not as lame as everyone says.
Council #5--Tommy Dunn kills Michael Thompson. Remember Thompson barely got in the run-off last time. He only won because Mike Holden is an idiot. If there is a run-off, Tommy Dunn wins by 60/40.
Council #6--Ron Wilson smokes The angry Rick Freemantle. There's no place for Rick Freemantle in a leadership position.
Council #7--Hands down Cindy Wilson wins. She has not had a real race since Austin's first run. There has been over $100,000 spent against her in the last few races. This one will be no different. I say Cindy gets 62%.
Council #1--Waldrep will smoke MacKay--No run-off
Council #3--Not even close, Larry Greer wins and wins bigs
Council #4--Tom Allen wins a close race. He's not as lame as everyone says.
Council #5--Tommy Dunn kills Michael Thompson. Remember Thompson barely got in the run-off last time. He only won because Mike Holden is an idiot. If there is a run-off, Tommy Dunn wins by 60/40.
Council #6--Ron Wilson smokes The angry Rick Freemantle. There's no place for Rick Freemantle in a leadership position.
Council #7--Hands down Cindy Wilson wins. She has not had a real race since Austin's first run. There has been over $100,000 spent against her in the last few races. This one will be no different. I say Cindy gets 62%.
My predictions:
Council #1--Waldrep will smoke MacKay--No run-off
Council #3--Not even close, Larry Greer wins and wins bigs
Council #4--Tom Allen wins a close race. He's not as lame as everyone says.
Council #5--Tommy Dunn kills Michael Thompson. Remember Thompson barely got in the run-off last time. He only won because Mike Holden is an idiot. If there is a run-off, Tommy Dunn wins by 60/40.
Council #6--Ron Wilson smokes The angry Rick Freemantle. There's no place for Rick Freemantle in a leadership position.
Council #7--Hands down Cindy Wilson wins. She has not had a real race since Austin's first run. There has been over $100,000 spent against her in the last few races. This one will be no different. I say Cindy gets 62%.
- willieh
What did you lace your weed with THIS time, brain fried willieh?
My predictions:
Council #1--Waldrep will smoke MacKay--No run-off
Council #3--Not even close, Larry Greer wins and wins bigs
Council #4--Tom Allen wins a close race. He's not as lame as everyone says.
Council #5--Tommy Dunn kills Michael Thompson. Remember Thompson barely got in the run-off last time. He only won because Mike Holden is an idiot. If there is a run-off, Tommy Dunn wins by 60/40.
Council #6--Ron Wilson smokes The angry Rick Freemantle. There's no place for Rick Freemantle in a leadership position.
Council #7--Hands down Cindy Wilson wins. She has not had a real race since Austin's first run. There has been over $100,000 spent against her in the last few races. This one will be no different. I say Cindy gets 62%.
- willieh
What did you lace your weed with THIS time, brain fried willieh?
- Shih
Shih, I have no idea who you are or what you stand for - if anything - but people have a right to post on The Cocklebur without your personal insults.
You may or may not be the same Shih who posts on McCarty's blog, but you're just as rude.
Shih, I have no idea who you are or what you stand for - if anything - but people have a right to post on The Cocklebur without your personal insults.
You may or may not be the same Shih who posts on McCarty's blog, but you're just as rude.- JDTippett
This is a sentiment shared by many!
...and add zn706 and daneboy4 to that name. There is no reason that comments can't be civil and decent.
Slurs, namecalling and childish scatological remarks are uncalled for and demean the blogger making them.
Slurs, namecalling and childish scatological remarks are uncalled for and demean the blogger making them.
Ditto!
...and add zn706 and daneboy4 to that name. There is no reason that comments can't be civil and decent.
Slurs, namecalling and childish scatological remarks are uncalled for and demean the blogger making them.- PAPPY
Amen, my wild liberal water-fighting friend!
My predictions:
Council #1--McKay
Council #3--Greer
Council #4--McAbee
Council #5--Thompson
Council #6--Wilson.
Council #7--Cindy
Council #1--McKay
Council #3--Greer
Council #4--McAbee
Council #5--Thompson
Council #6--Wilson.
Council #7--Cindy
My predictions:
Council #1--Waldrep will smoke MacKay--No run-off
Council #3--Not even close, Larry Greer wins and wins bigs
Council #4--Tom Allen wins a close race. He's not as lame as everyone says.
Council #5--Tommy Dunn kills Michael Thompson. Remember Thompson barely got in the run-off last time. He only won because Mike Holden is an idiot. If there is a run-off, Tommy Dunn wins by 60/40.
Council #6--Ron Wilson smokes The angry Rick Freemantle. There's no place for Rick Freemantle in a leadership position.
Council #7--Hands down Cindy Wilson wins. She has not had a real race since Austin's first run. There has been over $100,000 spent against her in the last few races. This one will be no different. I say Cindy gets 62%.
- willieh
I heard Tom Allen on the Nut Driver Show this morning. He got most of his "facts" wrong - Rick continually fed him lines and he repeated them. Every time Tom said something inaccurate, Rick fed him a line and Tom would say - yeah, that's it. All he could say was "we need and audit." Despite how badly he thinks we need an audit, he had no idea what type of audit or how much it would cost. Talk about playing to the "Nut Bunch." He's a loser! I'm a McAbee woman - he gets my vote!
My predictions:
Council #1--McKay
Council #3--Greer
Council #4--McAbee
Council #5--Thompson
Council #6--Wilson.
Council #7--Cindy- The Queen
Add District #2 - Floyd and you have it about right.
MCW (in a squeeker) will be a lone desenter again. When will Dist. #7 wake up ?
Add District #2 - Floyd and you have it about right.
MCW (in a squeeker) will be a lone desenter again. When will Dist. #7 wake up ?- republikin
She didn't include Ms. Gracie because she doesn't have a primary
I posted the following on another thread. I'll stick by it except to change the margin in the District 5 runoff to a loss of 15-20 percent for Thompson. I will also add Skipper wins in a very close one and Drawdy wins by over a 10 percent lead. And last but not least, Bowen (SC House) loses but nobody notices beacause he hasn't done anything for people to notice in his last term.
"District 5 goes to a runoff. Thompson loses by 10+ percent.
Greer gets to sit on the porch and review his past political history.
C. Wilson wins a narrow victory.
Gracie stays in office.
In a major upset, Allen beats BM!
Waldrep loses in a close one.
R Wilson will win easily.
That is how I see it. Of course I thought Mitt Romney would win the nomination too."
"District 5 goes to a runoff. Thompson loses by 10+ percent.
Greer gets to sit on the porch and review his past political history.
C. Wilson wins a narrow victory.
Gracie stays in office.
In a major upset, Allen beats BM!
Waldrep loses in a close one.
R Wilson will win easily.
That is how I see it. Of course I thought Mitt Romney would win the nomination too."
Dunn Wins District - 5 (Thompson really hurt himself by trying to chase the Reporter off. Dunn has a lot of name recognition in District 5. There are streets and roads starting with Dunn.)
Cindy Wilson stays in District - 7
Eddie Moore Defeats Larry Greer in District -3 (I heard the other day he has a sign in a cemetery)
Waldrep keeps his seat in District -1 (MacKay can count on one hand the people that like him. Waldrep has more support than people realize. )
Allen wins District - 4 (People in District 4 are tired of McAbee already. He seems to have made a fool of himself no matter what people think of his mother. I heard his mother is heart broken over his behavior.)
Ron Wilson keeps his seat (his opponent is wound too tight)
Charlie Griffin wins the District 8 House primary (Dobbins is running in the Democratic Primary, and as Chairman of Dist. 4 Board of Trustees, let the Confederate Flag continue to be worn by students.)
Roger Odachowski wins the Senate District 4 Democratic Primary (Ortiz seems to have more degrees than a thermometer)
Cindy Wilson stays in District - 7
Eddie Moore Defeats Larry Greer in District -3 (I heard the other day he has a sign in a cemetery)
Waldrep keeps his seat in District -1 (MacKay can count on one hand the people that like him. Waldrep has more support than people realize. )
Allen wins District - 4 (People in District 4 are tired of McAbee already. He seems to have made a fool of himself no matter what people think of his mother. I heard his mother is heart broken over his behavior.)
Ron Wilson keeps his seat (his opponent is wound too tight)
Charlie Griffin wins the District 8 House primary (Dobbins is running in the Democratic Primary, and as Chairman of Dist. 4 Board of Trustees, let the Confederate Flag continue to be worn by students.)
Roger Odachowski wins the Senate District 4 Democratic Primary (Ortiz seems to have more degrees than a thermometer)
My predictions:
Council #1--McKay
Council #3--Greer
Council #4--McAbee
Council #5--Thompson
Council #6--Wilson.
Council #7--Cindy- The Queen
Sorry. Screwed up the last post in my eagerness to see if Queen would like to bet some money on her predictions. The light bill is due and since she seems to be in the deep darkness, I thought maybe she'd like to help me out?My predictions:
Council #1--McKay
Council #3--Greer
Council #4--McAbee
Council #5--Thompson
Council #6--Wilson.
Council #7--Cindy- The Queen
- dunebuggy
